000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252035 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BUD THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AT BEST...WITH A MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. SUBSEQUENT FLIGHT-LEVEL DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATE DRIER AIR PENETRATING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE CERTAINLY INDUCED RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND BUD COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID DECAY IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO SEPARATES THE MID- AND SURFACE-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BUD IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND THE LGEM AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER BUD MAKES LANDFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A DEPRESSION AND ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.2N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 20.1N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 27/1800Z 19.9N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 19.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS