000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251451
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THIS MORNING.  BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER
CORE OF THE CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BASICALLY
BECOME AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF CONVECTION.  AN EARLIER AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS WAS CERTAINLY TIMELY IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND REVEALING AN APPARENT TILT OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE SHIPS AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOW SITUATED TO
THE SOUTH.  BASED ON THESE CHANGES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT.  

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EITHER AT OR JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTERWARD...RAPID DECAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO DECOUPLES THE THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  BUD IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96 HOURS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL
AND THE LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. BUD REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE U.S. WEST COAST TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...OR ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE COAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY...
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN SHOWING A SHALLOW CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. 
 
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.4N 105.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 19.9N 105.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/0000Z 20.0N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  27/1200Z 19.8N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.4N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS