000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250839 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 THE EYE OF BUD IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BUD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. BUD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/07...AS BUD IS BEING STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD...HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF BUD WILL DECOUPLE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND BACK OFFSHORE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AT 48 THROUGH 72 HOURS...A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-EMERGES OVER THE WATER. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN