000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241439 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012 ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR. IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS... AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL. THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS... WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3. DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN