000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220234
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
 
WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE
ORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
SINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS
AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.  IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH
EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST.  THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A
FAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
COULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW...ABOUT
290/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK CHANGING TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ONE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...AND LARGE
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z  9.8N 101.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 10.5N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 11.6N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 12.7N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 13.8N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 17.5N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 18.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE