000
WTPZ42 KNHC 122040
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR DATA OUT OF MOZOTAL AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
CROSSED THE COAST BETWEEN SALINA CRUZ AND ARRIAGA DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATIVE THAT WEAKENING HAS
ALREADY BEGUN. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY LOSE ITS
IDENTITY WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE GYRE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 24
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE REMNANT
LOW STATUS IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.
 
CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/06.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.
 
VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EVEN AFTER THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 16.3N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.8N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN