000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
RECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...
THIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY
WARMING.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX
OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOL WATERS
AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG
125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS
AND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.   THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE