000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190839
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE WARMING AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING BUT STILL
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND SOON THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND GREG COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. GREG WILL LIKELY BE STEERED
TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  IN
FACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST GREG TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 2 DAYS.

GREG JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...AND DATA FROM A
MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION WAS VERY HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE
CYCLONE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 19.1N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.5N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 18.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA