000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170238 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS FROM THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AND HWRF...AND SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER SHIPS/GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER A TIMELY 0003 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/12. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 3-4 DAYS...WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 15.6N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 17.1N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 17.8N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.9N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 19.8N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN