000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST- NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS POINT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THESE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE RATES OF INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 WITH THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND DURING THAT TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE A BIT. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BREAK DEVELOPING BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY DAY 5. AT THAT POINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS... ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.8N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG