000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212033
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
 
THE APPEARANCE OF BEATRIZ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME VERY 
RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY.  BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR
ORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION LOSES DEFINITION.  
 
AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS DISINTEGRATED...THE
CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/10.  THE LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE MEDIUM
AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  

EVEN AS BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE COAST...MOIST
SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 19.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 19.1N 107.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 19.1N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 19.1N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 19.1N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN