000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211445 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ MOVED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED SOME WEAKENING. THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND TOPS HAVE WARMED AS WELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1200 UTC DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST ...WHICH TAKES BEATRIZ OVER COOLER WATER MORE QUICKLY...THE NEW FORECAST INTENSITIES DECREASE FASTER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/12...AS BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN FACT...THE ACTUAL POSITION COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE CURRENT ESTIMATE. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS BEATRIZ RAPIDLY BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.6N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.3N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 20.8N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 21.1N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.2N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.3N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN