000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210838
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE
COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.
 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND
INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID
DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO.  IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER
AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN