000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210240
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
800 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE
ESTIMATED CENTER.  GIVEN THAT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE TO
HURRICANE STATUS.  IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ
TO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL.  AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  BY DAY
4...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 18.0N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 18.6N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 20.0N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 20.2N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA