000
WTPZ42 KNHC 202040
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BEATRIZ
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  A BLEND OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 74 KT AND DROPSONDE DATA WERE USED TO SET THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WELL-
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK OF 80 KT FROM 24 TO 36
HOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS BEATRIZ MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATERS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.  IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM.
 
THE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD 330/7.  THE
OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  BEATRIZ IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME THE
RE-STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TURN BEATRIZ BACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...AND AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAY 3.  THIS WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...IT
IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXTEND OVER A
LARGE AREA AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA. 
 
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT.  THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS WERE ALSO EXPANDED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM THE
JASON ALTIMETER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 17.0N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 17.6N 103.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 18.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 20.0N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN