000 WTPZ42 KNHC 201440 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 800 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN. OVERALL...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM CLOSELY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND A BIT NORTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 320/8...BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS... THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY...AND PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.3N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN