000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200240
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
 
ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF
BEATRIZ IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED
EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND MORE SYMMETRY AROUND THE ESTIMATED
CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB
AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. 
BEATRIZ WILL BE MOVING OVER A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY LATE TOMORROW AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THESE MODELS SINCE THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE OF INTENSITY OF 25
TO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THEREFORE BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BASED ON A BLEND OF GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF BEATRIZ AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
RIGHT AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
OUT AND ALLOW SOME BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
BEATRIZ.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...ESPECIALLY
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK SINCE ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST COULD BRING
THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 14.9N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.7N 102.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.9N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 17.9N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 18.8N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 20.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN