000
WTPZ42 KNHC 192032
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION.  TWO CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE 1800 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BEATRIZ SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED OVER VERY WARM
WATERS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5
WHEN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/10. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE STEERING PATTERN...SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
BEATRIZ TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO
AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. BY 72 HOURS THE COMBINATION OF
A WEAKENING CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 14.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN