000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222048
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
200 PM PDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE
THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE STATE OF
SONORA. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE CONVECTION AND IS STILL VERY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND
ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED. GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
THURSDAY.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT A DAY.  THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS MEANDERING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATES THERE
IF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR REMOVES ALL THE CONVECTION SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 28.0N 111.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA