000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221436
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
800 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
THERE IS A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO REPORTS
OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS ON THE COAST OF BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL INTERACT WITH LAND...AND
THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAKENING.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES
AT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND SOME AREAS
COULD EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 26.8N 111.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.6N 111.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N 112.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA