000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220842
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
200 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010
 
THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  A
NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THERE IS SOME WEAK BANDING SEEN
IN DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT CIUDAD OBREGON.  AN ASCAT
OVERPASS AT 0506 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/12.  GEORGETTE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN GEORGETTE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST GEORGETTE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE AND
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  THAT BEING
SAID...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THUS...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND.  GEORGETTE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.  FINAL DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 25.8N 110.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 27.8N 111.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N 111.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 33.1N 111.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN