000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220231
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...SO THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT MAY BE GENEROUS.  ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...THE
SMALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH
LAND...SO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY. 
INDEED...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE MAKES GEORGETTE A
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE OUR SKILL
IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE
LIMITED...IT IS PRUDENT TO HAVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR A PORTION OF THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST.  GEORGETTE SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 340/11.  ONLY A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  GEORGETTE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
AFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CARRY
GEORGETTES REMNANTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 24.6N 110.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.1N 111.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.7N 111.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH