000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212036
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT IT HAS MADE LANDFALL
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 35 KT.  GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE
GEORGETTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER
TONIGHT.  PRIMARILY FOR THIS REASON...RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  GEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MOISTURE
FROM GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 23.3N 109.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 25.1N 110.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.7N 111.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 30.3N 112.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN