000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211450
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCATED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY
SHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KT.  WITHOUT ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS SINCE THE
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
GEORGETTE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT.  THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/8.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
GEORGETTE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER 24 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 22.5N 109.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.9N 110.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.4N 111.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.3N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART