000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211204
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE AN ASCAT PASS FROM
YESTERDAY...AND SHIP DFZA2 FROM 0300 UTC...INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WITH 35-KT WINDS. 
GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY.  GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO UNTIL
IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 23.1N 110.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 25.4N 111.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 28.1N 112.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG