000
WTPZ42 KNHC 101445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010
 
STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN A FINAL TOLL ON ESTELLE AS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AROUND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER...WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MODEST BURSTS OF WEAK CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESTELLE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS. 
 
THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND GET DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER OR NOT
ESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY THE
DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. GIVEN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE
LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND GENERALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 17.3N 112.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.1N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 112.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.7N 111.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ORRISON