000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100837 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE DISSIPATED AROUND 01Z...BUT SOME MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -62C REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 05Z AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THEN. THAT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES/CLOUD LINES NOTED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR KEEPING ESTELLE BARELY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS SINCE 00Z INDICATE ESTELLE HAS MADE A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF 235/02. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL NOW THAT HAS ESTELLE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF ESTELLE LEAVING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 12 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN ESTELLE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART