000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010
 
AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE HAS SUCCUMBED
TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LEAVING THE CENTER EXPOSED
TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE AT 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  THE
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30-35 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH FOR THE SURVIVAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS ESTELLE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION...BUT THE
LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  ESTELLE OR
ITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO ITS EAST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO. 
HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ESTELLE...OR ITS
REMNANT...ABSORBING THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ESTELLE COULD
REGENERATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOMEWHAT REDUCED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 17.6N 113.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.6N 113.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.3N 113.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.5N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN