000
WTPZ42 KNHC 092045
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010
 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
ESTELLE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
EXPOSED.  A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...MAKING ESTELLE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...GIVEN FORECAST
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  REMNANT LOW
STATUS IS PROBABLE BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.
 
ESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES
AROUND THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO.  RELIABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OF
ESTELLE AFTER IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO A WARMER WATER
AND LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN A FEW DAYS.  AT THIS POINT...IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ESTELLE WILL BECOME PART OF THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS SEEN
IN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 17.7N 112.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.6N 112.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.4N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.7N 112.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE