000
WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010
 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER
AS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ESTELLE. THE MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOSTLY
SURROUNDED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED
TO 35 KT.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A DEPRESSION
SOON AND A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

ESTELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND EAST AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN MERGE
THE SYSTEM INTO A LARGER ITCZ LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 17.7N 112.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE