000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090244
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
 
SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
ESTELLE.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  AS ESTELLE CONTINUES
WESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
EVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.
 
THE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
EAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN