000
WTPZ42 KNHC 082039
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
ESTELLE HAS BECOME DETACHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ITS DECAYING
MID-LEVEL CENTER.  CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASING AND IS ONLY
PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED
TO 40 KT... CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESTELLE MOVING
INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
A 12-HR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/4.  THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY UNTIL ESTELLE BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW.  THEREAFTER THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO A
LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 111.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 17.9N 113.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.7N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE