000
WTPZ42 KNHC 081436
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER
OF ESTELLE.  HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
SHAPE...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 50
KT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. 
ESTELLE HAS CROSSED THE 26.5C ISOTHERM AND HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY.  DECREASING SSTS...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A SLOW WEAKENING OF
ESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
ESTELLE.  AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE RELIABLE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE