000
WTPZ42 KNHC 072032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010
 
THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CURVED BAND
AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE STORM.  THE STORM LOOKS
BETTER ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  USING A
BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ESTELLE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE SUNDAY.  MOST OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM
BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GUIDANCE.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY ABOUT DAY 4 DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A COOL STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF ESTELLE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE
WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES AFFECTED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE
REMNANTS OF ESTELLE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE LONG-RANGE AND MOVE FARTHER EAST THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST INDICATES BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 17.1N 108.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 112.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 113.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE