000
WTPZ42 KNHC 071449
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010
 
A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE APPARENT CENTER OF ESTELLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE A LITTLE INCONCLUSIVE... A RECENT 1231 UTC
SSMI PASS WAS QUITE USEFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
CURRENT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CHANGE IN
INTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS
ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TAKES ITS TOLL
ON ESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT REMAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM.    

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF ESTELLE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE TOMORROW. 
THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF THE STORM TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS AND HWRF SHOWING
THAT MOTION. THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD CAUSE ESTELLE TO SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE LONG RANGE...AND
THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL
MODELS AS A REMNANT LOW.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 17.1N 107.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.3N 108.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 17.8N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE