000
WTPZ42 KNHC 070248
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
 
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED SEVERAL CURVED
BANDS AND A DEVELOPING CDO.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
WARM WATER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATER AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN.
 
ESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT
APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONCE ESTELLE WEAKENS AND BECOME
A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN EVEN
MORE. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N 106.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W    40 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN