000 WTPZ42 KNHC 062034 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010 AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON... ESTELLE HAS FORMED. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A CDO-TYPE PATTERN FORMING NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND RATHER WARM WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE...BUT NONE OF THEM MAKE ESTELLE A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD...AND REMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE THE GUIDANCE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT 290/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO RIDGING OVER MEXICO. THERE REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES THE BREAK...A SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...AT THE LONGER-RANGES OF THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE