000 WTPZ42 KNHC 061450 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010 THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9... ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME. GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE