000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060843
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600
UTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436
UTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING
THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS
...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A
NORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI