000 WTPZ42 KNHC 060300 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 PM PDT THU AUG 05 2010 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 2.5...WHICH SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A PERHAPS CONSERVATIVE 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SMALL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND MANY OF THEM SHOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH ITCZ DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS RESULTS IN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICTING A SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MEDIUM AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THIS IS AT THE UPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 16.0N 102.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.4N 103.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 105.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 17.7N 106.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 19.7N 110.8W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN