000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170834 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010 200 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH A 17/0330Z ASCAT OVERPASS AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA...INDICATE THAT TD-02E HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF ONE EXISTS AT ALL. CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE ABOUT 00Z DUE TO INCREASED EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM A MASSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION OVER BOTH THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SEVERAL WESTERLY 20-25 ASCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES. ALL OF THE MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO ...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-02E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE INFLUENCED OR EVEN ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS REFLECTED BY A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THOSE TIMES. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. BY 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE LGEM AND SHIFOR MODELS. IF A WEAKENING TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 15.5N 97.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.8N 98.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 16.2N 99.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 101.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 102.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 105.1W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 17.0N 108.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA