000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170241 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010 800 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT... IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A 2318 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A 2003 AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE FIXES...AND THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FEELING SOME EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...BASED ON ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF CORRECT COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INITIAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.2N 96.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.6N 97.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.8N 98.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.1N 99.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 100.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN