000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162036
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSATING MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 25-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. 
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
OR 310/3 OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE
MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
EAST.  THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AS A
SEPARATE SYSTEM...TAKES THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION
OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT NOT BE SO FAVORABLE.  AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 15.0N  95.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.1N  96.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.3N  97.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  98.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N  99.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 101.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN