000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
AN 0850 UTC MICROWAVE PASS FROM AMSR-E AS WELL AS THE FIRST COUPLE
OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH SUCH A POORLY-
DEFINED MINIMALLY-CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB AND TAFB RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.
 
THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 060/4.  EVEN THOUGH SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE IVO TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE
INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS WERE DEPICTING IVO AS A STRONGER
CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE MORE REALISTICALLY AND DRIFT IVO
ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
IVO MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.  IT REMAINS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 22.1N 111.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 22.6N 110.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 109.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI