000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230846
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007
 
NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 0156 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30
KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  IVO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
12-24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
THE NOW SHALLOW CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/6.
DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW IVO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD BUT ALL OF THESE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE A VORTEX
THAT IS FAR TOO DEEP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN THE OLD FORECAST
TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS
IVO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS BEEN CANCELED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 22.3N 111.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 24.6N 108.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME