000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER WAS NEARING THE COAST. SINCE THEN....AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
OF A 1154 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS VERY
NEAR THE COAST.  SURFACE DATA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ALSO SUPPORT
THE LANDFALL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO MADERO REPORTED 31 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 46 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.4 MB.  A SECOND
OBSERVATION AT TAPACHULA MEXICO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005.1 MB.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST IS THAT SOME MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER COULD GET LEFT BEHIND.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ASSUMES THAT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.

IF BARBARA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 14.8N  92.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND 
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.5N  91.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA