000 WTPZ42 KNHC 292047 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A BETTER-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO THE WEST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.0...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DEPRESSION NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY. LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN UNUSUAL NET SOUTHWARD STEERING FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW DRIFT AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND SALINA CRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION UNTIL THE EXPECTED MOTION AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 30C...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY HIGHLY DIVERGENT... AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO 80 KT OR HIGHER...AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS UNUSUALLY HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTORS WOULD BE SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE AND CAUSE LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN INDICATED HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 14.2N 97.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.0N 97.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 97.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.0N 97.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 13.0N 97.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 13.4N 97.7W 75 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 14.5N 98.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 99.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN