000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
 
A NAKED SWIRL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF PAUL
TONIGHT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE
BEEN PULLED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IF PAUL DOES NOT REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO... PAUL WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF DUE NORTH FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.7N 108.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.8N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
 
A NAKED SWIRL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF PAUL
TONIGHT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE
BEEN PULLED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IF PAUL DOES NOT REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO... PAUL WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF DUE NORTH FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 24.7N 108.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.8N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN