000 WTPZ42 KNHC 312034 TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NICE EYEWALL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS STILL NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE COOLER WATERS...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...AND APPROACHING EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF JOHN...FORCING KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOON-LIKE FLOW...OR EVEN EASTWARD AGAIN IF IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN. IN WHAT SHOULD BE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE TRACK OF KRISTY WILL TURN LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT KRISTY WILL BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AND WOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.4N 117.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 312034 TCDEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NICE EYEWALL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS STILL NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE COOLER WATERS...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...AND APPROACHING EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF JOHN...FORCING KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOON-LIKE FLOW...OR EVEN EASTWARD AGAIN IF IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN. IN WHAT SHOULD BE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE TRACK OF KRISTY WILL TURN LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT KRISTY WILL BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AND WOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.4N 117.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN