000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES
TEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS.  THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
LIKELY THEREAFTER.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ROBERTS/PASCH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND
MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES
TEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS.  THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
LIKELY THEREAFTER.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ROBERTS/PASCH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH